鼎韬作为全球知名研究咨询机构，关注点和研究重点在中国，行业趋势预测发布也是以中国农历时间为参考，发布来年行业趋势向来比较晚。鼎韬发布的“2017年全球服务贸易外包趋势”恰逢其时，因为影响全球服务贸易的几大重要事件都发生在2017年1月份（也就是中国农历新年--春节前后）。从某种角度而言，这个预测也是行业中涵盖了最新颠覆性因素的先锋。
As a global research and advisory firm, Devott’s special strength and expertise concentrate on China’s market, technologies and future trends with two mutually supplementing directions - helping international companies enter and expand in China and helping Chinese investors/corporations go oversea. Because of China’s worldwide influence, the Chinese issues are also global concerns. To show our specialism, Devott announce its annual industry trends in the end of Chinese lunar year which normally fall in between late January and middle February. This odd timing sometimes gives our clients impressions being slightly late as their strategy guidance, but this year it allows Devott’s publication of 2017 Trends to be one of very few professional predictions embracing latest and also most fundamental changes of this industry.
鼎韬预测－Devott Predictions:
1.国际政治和地缘因素将更大地影响全球服务贸易及服务外包发展走向。2017年全球服务贸易及服务外包交易中，价格和成本都将让位于最新国际政治及各国对应政策下企业的生存力。国际政治、地缘风险对服务贸易及服务外包的影响，无论是深度，还是广度，都将是历史性的。服务贸易外包在这场全球性的风暴中，变化是肯定的，颠覆也是可能的，非确定性成了确定。目前看来，买家的担心与顾虑比卖家更多些，这也算是行业历史的第一次。
International relations and geopolitical elements will be dominant influences over service trades and sourcing industries this year. The conventional decisive factors such as costs, prices, process controls will be secondary to the adoptability and flexibility of buyers and providers to accommodate uncertainties and changes. The influences in terms of depth or width will be unprecedented. The only thing certain is uncertainty. For the time being, buyers appear to have more worries and anxieties than providers, which is first time in this business.
2.全球性风险与不确定性将改变服务贸易外包发展的基本模式与驱动力。2017年，全球性风险不仅带来正反两个方向的影响，更带来不确定性和动荡性。从安全性考虑，买家不再想承担财务、技术、人力资源等方面的更多任何风险，新的服务贸易外包项目会需要更多的论证时间，重续项目的可能性更大。无论买家还是卖家，都得在战略咨询与市场研究上投入大量资源来看清形势，避免致命威胁。因此，2017年对全球各大研究咨询公司而言可能会是黄金时期的开始．
Worldwide risks and uncertainties could fundamentally change basics business models and driving mechanism of global service trades and sourcing industries. No time in the history the industries face more uncertainties and turbulence, positive or negatives remain unknown than 2017. For buyers the very first instinct to reduce risks. To minimize risks, buyers won’t take in any unnecessary uncertainties for unconvinced returns. It will take much longer to evaluate and launch new programs and new projects. Renew existed relationship and businesses appear to be a safer option for both buyer and providers. Because of the uncertainties and perplexities, both buyers and providers will invest tremendously in research and advisory. 2017 could be the starting year of golden period of international research and advisory businesses.
3.数据安全性和运营稳定性成为全球服务贸易买家考虑的重要因素。数据安全性与业务稳定性成为服务贸易交易与服务外包买家考虑的第一要素，也将是他们对供应商的第一要求。2017年的不同之处在于，买家一旦觉得供应商在这两条的任何一条不符合要求，都不再有耐心等待修改或者提高。反过来说，只要能够保证服务外包业务的安全性与稳定性，哪怕经济上不划算或交付延期，供应商也会愿意承受。因此，2017年，供应商在服务贸易外包业务中自身安全系统、保护流程等方面的投资将会有明显回报。
Data security and operation reliability become the leading elements in global buyers’ evaluation list of domestic, near-shore and offshore providers. What makes year 2017 different is that global buyers have little tolerance of any providers whose qualifications and capabilities are less than what they demand in the two perspectives. On the contrary, buyers are much more bearable to price increase and/or project delay if the causes come from improving security and process accountability. No other time in the history providers could found better returns and buyers’ supports to invest on their security systems and reliability procedures.
4.全球服务贸易及服务外包领域的投资并购业务将稳中下滑。全球范围内，并购与战略投资会出现稳中下滑趋势，但在经济相对稳定与资金储备较为丰富的局部地区与领域，尤其是东亚地区，并购投资业务有可能会出现小高峰。在目前的国际环境下，并购也许是最能起到扩大全球市场的有效战略之一。没有资本上的合作关系，无论买卖双方，还是卖家之间，合作伙伴的关系都会很难持续。
Investments - M&A activities in global servicing and sourcing will be slower in 2017 compared to previous years, but much slower or speed up again in 2018 depending on more policy clarifications coming out from the major countries such as US. In the relatively stable regions where capitals are sufficient such as China, M&A activities would show a spike because of less options of worldwide locations and verticals. Among all available methods of market penetration and new client acquisition, M&A is one of the most effective for ambitious new players. The partnership between buyers and providers won’t be truly equal unless the partnership is built on certain types of capitals or ownerships.
5.最新技术将继续颠覆服务贸易外包的发展，人工智能是最具摧毁性的。随着云计算、物联网、大数据及人工智能等新技术的发展和更新换代，将对服务贸易外包行业产生颠覆性的“破坏”，其中人工智能的影响最为深刻。我们预测未来五年内，能代替计算机科学专业本科二年级学生的机器人将会出现；未来十年内，ITO领域50%左右的应用开发程序员、测试工程师等将被机器程序员代替。传统的IT外包大国，现在必须做好50%的程序员不再被需要的转型准备。因此，2017年中国的服务贸易外包市场需要把握新技术带来的机遇和挑战，解决好更多的对国内外开放难题，否则中国目前处于中下游的外包企业，存活率将会更低。
Some new technologies continue to disrupt development of global service trades and sourcing, AI (Artificial Intelligence) tops the list in ourmarket forecast. We predict programming robots with equivalent programming capability of junior college students will be available in five years. Fifty percent of junior developers and testers in ITO will be replaced in ten years. The leading ITO countries must prepare for the scenarios where over half of their current developers won’t make financial sense in ten years. China’s service trades and sourcing industries have to face the serious challenges brought by the technologies, political turbulence and management immaturity combined. We believe one of the key solutions is to open up domestic markets of service trades and sourcing to all domestic companies and treat domestic companies same as global companies. Incentives and supports are insufficient to develop an industry to the global level.
6.中小型供应商将会得到更多地重视、青睐与机会。无论是技术的发展，还是全球化深入导致的市场变化，全球服务外包买家将更看重服务商的灵活度、行业经验和解决方案能力。2017年，具有行业经验与行业解决方案的服务外包供应商将会最受追捧，而服务外包企业的规模大小、外包团队技能的多样性、Ramp-Up/Ramp-Down的可适性等将慢慢退出买家评估供应商体系中的核心评估要素.大型供应商与生俱来的风险，改变可行度都是不能与中小型企业相比的．
SMB of global providers will receive more attention, considerations and businesses. Due to emergency of disrupting technologies and transformation of global market, global buyers will place more weight of selection on flexibility, vertical experience and industry solutions when they need external helps. So much so HR sizes, ramp-up/ramp-down space, skill width or experience portfolio are less important than before.SMBs win in these important new evaluations.
7.进入发展黄金期的服务贸易外包研究与咨询机构将更关注政治风险、市场稳定性和企业安全性。成本，无论是短期成本，还是长期成本，由于新技术的出现以及应用，风险带来的成本未知，所以服务贸易外包买家在选择供应商上，会出现大相径庭的交付成本、风险计算方式与选择结果。因此，专注于涵盖政治风险、市场稳定、企业安全性三大领域的研究与咨询将是2017年的全球服务贸易外包咨询研究机构的业务新亮点。
Global research and advisory firms entering strong growth period will focus on impact assessment and risk quantifications due to political turbulence, market volatility and corporate security measures. The selection of providers and locations could be different even from different units of same company. This is a reasons advanced studies in-house and external resource will be sought after this year. Policy risks, market stability and corporate reliability will be the themes of service trades and sourcing research .
8.创新将成为新一轮服务贸易外包发展的关键词。没有人否认这个行业的存在就是为了减少成本与风险，增加技能与资源，但是如何达到这个目的的渠道却在不断变化。2017年，利用创新来优化流程、提高交付灵活性、发明新技术、提高人力资源效能等，成为最被认可的途径。
Innovation will be the keyword of new waves of trade services and sourcing development. No one argue the primary driving forces (sole forces before 2017) of this business are cost reduction, adding new technologies and HR sources. The difference now and before is the ways of achieving the objectives evolve dramatically. The critical to the evolution is the innovation, without which is there no possibility for process improvements, delivery flexibility, new technology application and higher HR efficiency. It’s fair to say innovation is the life line of both buyers and providers.
9.服务贸易外包的行业标准和管理体系将面临改革。由于政治风潮，新技术的持续引入与融合，服务贸易外包业内的标准与管理体系的建设、推广与持续应用不再是必须的交付因素。不把安全性、稳定性、可持续性放在标准体系前三位的老体系将会被迅速淘汰，至少会被认为有缺陷的。
Flexibility and adaptability precede stability and reliability for both buyers and providers combating unprecedented turbulence and insecurity starting this year. For this reason industry standards and governance of deliveries, process control become flexible and open to changes if higher level demands are there as well. There are so many variables in the industry standards, governance systems which new risks and policies were not included.
- 温馨提示：2017年2月中旬，鼎韬将推出2017年中国服务贸易及服务外包发展对策报告，敬请期待。
- Note: A brief report of Devott’s advisories to mitigate the risks will be published in the middle of February 2017. Please contact our marketing and sales teams for the latest guidance.
【以上内容为鼎韬咨询原创，仅代表鼎韬咨询观点，版权及最终解释权归鼎韬咨询所有，如需转载及引用请注明来源及作者。本观点与阐述属研究，咨询部门个人或者项目看法，未必与鼎韬的整体战略，定位与观点一致。】
